Switzerland can make its energy supply climate-neutral by 2050 and at the same time ensure its security, as shown by a study that also shows how with a climate policy geared to the goal of zero net emissions the Swiss economy continues to grow.

The goal of energy and climate policy is to reduce the effects of climate change and the resulting costs. According to various studies, uncontrolled climate change could lead to enormous economic costs. For this reason, the Federal Council is pursuing the goal of zero net emissions, i.e. Switzerland should achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This means that natural and technical storage systems will absorb the remaining greenhouse gas emissions in 2050.

To achieve this goal, Switzerland must base its energy system more on indigenous renewable energies. In its Energy Perspectives 2050+, the SFOE shows that Switzerland can reduce its dependence on oil and gas and become more energy efficient, all with the help of sustainable investments. A new study by the consulting firm Ecoplan ties in with this analysis. The study simulates three scenarios by which Switzerland can achieve the goal of a net zero balance and examines the economic effects.

Welfare, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment continue to grow

The three scenarios describe different packages of measures with which Switzerland could achieve climate neutrality. In all three scenarios, the Swiss economy clearly continues to grow until 2050.

In the main scenario, prosperity, which indicates how prosperous a country is, increases by 36 per cent by 2050, while gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the health of the economy, increases by 33 per cent. This corresponds to an annual growth of about 1 per cent by 2050, similar to the other two scenarios. Employment also increases in all three scenarios.

In the economic sphere, the structural change from energy-intensive and emission-intensive industry to services is slightly reinforced. The energy and construction sectors benefit from increased investments in energy efficiency and renewable energies in Switzerland. In the energy-intensive sectors, the study assumes a decline in employment.

The three zero-emission scenarios are compared with a hypothetical reference evolution ‘Continuation of current energy policy’, which does not take into account recent climate policy measures in Switzerland and abroad. In the reference evolution, the net zero emissions target is not achieved. In this scenario, welfare and GDP grow by 0.04 per cent and 0.07 per cent per year, respectively, more than in the ‘zero net balance’ main scenario. In other words, the renunciation of an effective climate policy has practically no effect in terms of economic growth. On the contrary, the absence of such measures causes considerable damage to the climate, which in turn translates into considerable economic costs.

Climate change and consequences

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Positive side effects and costs of non-action

Reorganising the energy system also has positive side effects. For example, in addition to CO2 emissions, air and noise pollution caused by road traffic and related external costs are reduced.

The study does not take into account the costs of climate damage. The real objective of climate policy is actually to avoid the so-called costs of non-action. However, the method for calculating these costs is complex and cumbersome. The study therefore focuses on calculating the economic effects of measures to achieve the goal of zero net emissions.

Configuration of the three scenarios

In the study, the three scenarios under which Switzerland can achieve the net-zero target have been deliberately simplified. The economic effects in the three scenarios differ only slightly. This means that the goal of a net zero emissions balance can be achieved with different packages of measures at similar costs to the economy. However, a discussion at the political level on the climate and energy measures to be taken in concrete terms has yet to be conducted. The study does not anticipate such a discussion. Therefore, the scenarios presented do not even reflect the current state of climate policy in Switzerland and include measures, such as an incentive tax on greenhouse gases or an increase in the current CO2 tax on fuels, which are not considered a political priority. Ultimately, the study scenarios do not even include relief measures for certain population groups or the mitigation of undesirable distributional effects. These will have to be considered when designing future climate and energy policies.

Energy outlook

In Switzerland, following the 1973 oil crisis, the ‘Global Energy Concept’ laid the foundations for a national energy policy, including, for the first time, the Energy Perspectives, which have since been periodically updated. The latest version, dating from 2012 (‘Energy Perspectives 2050’), formed the basis for the revision of Swiss energy policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The ‘Energy Strategy 2050’ and the new Energy Act, which came into force on 1 January 2018, were based on this last version. The most up-to-date framework data and technological developments were taken into account for the Energy Perspectives 2050+, and the goal of a net balance of zero by 2050 was set.The Energy Perspectives 2050+ do not comment on the probability of a scenario occurring as predicted, or whether one development is more likely than another. The Energy Outlook 2050+ was drawn up on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) by a consortium consisting of the companies Prognos AG, TEP Energy GmbH, Infras AG and Ecoplan AG. Further results were published in 2021. The study on economic impacts concludes the Energy Outlook 2050+.

PROSPETTIVE ENERGETICHE 2050+ EFFETTI ECONOMICI (Italiano)

PERSPECTIVES ÉNERGÉTIQUES 2050+EFFETS ÉCONOMIQUES (Français)

ENERGIEPERSPEKTIVEN 2050+VOLKSWIRTSCHAFTLICHE AUSWIRKUNGEN (Deutsch)

Fonte: Admin.ch