{"id":98553,"date":"2021-05-17T16:16:40","date_gmt":"2021-05-17T16:16:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/bak-economics-in-svizzera-nessuna-forte-inflazione\/"},"modified":"2021-05-26T15:12:22","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T15:12:22","slug":"bak-economics-no-strong-inflation-in-switzerland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/bak-economics-no-strong-inflation-in-switzerland\/","title":{"rendered":"BAK Economics: &#8220;No strong inflation in Switzerland&#8230;&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>BAK Economics: &#8220;No strong inflation in Switzerland&#8230;&#8221;<\/h1>\n<h3><em>Rising prices are causing unease and concern, but the Basel, Zurich and Lugano-based institute believes the fears are unfounded, especially in the short term<\/em><\/h3>\n<p>The current price increases are to be interpreted positively as global demand has resumed strong growth. This has brought the prices of many goods and services, which had fallen massively during the pandemic, to a level considered more &#8220;normal&#8221;.<br \/>\nThis is the thesis of BAK Economics, a prestigious Swiss institution with offices in Basel, Zurich and Lugano, which cites the price of oil as an important example of these effects.<br \/>\nDespite this, the recovery process is nevertheless beset with obstacles. For a variety of reasons, supply in many countries is currently unable to keep pace with the high demand for goods and services.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/covid-switzerland-updates-regulations-on-itinerant-trade\/\"><strong>COVID, Switzerland updates regulations on itinerant trade<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/covid-financial-markets-and-digital-growth-according-snb\/\"><strong>COVID, financial markets and digital growth according to the SNB<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_89379\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-89379\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-89379 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"Cataste di legno pronte per essere vendute\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Cataste-di-legno-pronte-per-essere-vendute.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-89379\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Stacks of wood ready to be sold<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4>Timber and hospitality sectors &#8220;taken by surprise<\/h4>\n<p>The pace of global recovery has taken many producers &#8220;by surprise&#8221;, as in the case of timber production or the hospitality sector. In the hospitality sector, supply is still very limited compared to actual capacity due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"de\">Schweizer <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Konjunktur?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Konjunktur<\/a> gewinnt an Schwung: Die Schweizer <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Volkswirtschaft?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Volkswirtschaft<\/a> wird ihr Vorkrisenniveau bereits wieder im Sommer 2021 erreichen. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Wirtschaftsprognosen?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wirtschaftsprognosen<\/a> im <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BAK_Economics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BAK_Economics<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BAKmonthly?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BAKmonthly<\/a> Konjunktur Report. Jetzt kostenlos anmelden: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d9IFysMi8M\">https:\/\/t.co\/d9IFysMi8M<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xsQ5kZEd0k\">pic.twitter.com\/xsQ5kZEd0k<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 BAK Economics (@BAK_Economics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BAK_Economics\/status\/1392135151954669570?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 11, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In addition, there are specific events that could be described as &#8220;unfortunate&#8221;, such as the merchant ship stuck in the Suez Canal or the fire in a large Japanese chip factory, which are both delaying the production of various products in high demand and further exacerbating excess demand.<br \/>\nInflation becomes particularly dangerous when expectations also shift significantly upwards and set in motion a self-reinforcing price\/wage spiral that can only be slowed by a painful tightening of monetary policy.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_98253\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-98253\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-98253 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"L'inflazione \u00e8 un fenomeno da studiare e calmierare\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-e-un-fenomeno-da-studiare-e-calmierare.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-98253\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Inflation is a phenomenon to be studied and controlled<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4>Deflationary counterforces are already counterattacking<\/h4>\n<p>It is true that these processes are currently leading, in some countries, to significantly higher inflation rates than those to which we have been accustomed in recent years, but this phenomenon should be considered as temporary and not sufficient to bring inflation expectations to a level that is no longer compatible with price stability. Deflationary counterforces are having a strong impact.<br \/>\nThink, for example, of the global economy, which despite recovery is only slowly returning to full capacity, unemployment, which is still well above its pre-crisis level, and continued intense global competition.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/anti-covid-measures-gone-switzerland-will-start-racing\/\"><strong>Anti-COVID measures gone, Switzerland will start to run<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/covid19-switzerland-reopenings-yes-but-free-exams-for-all\/\"><strong>COVID19 &amp; Switzerland: reopenings yes, but free exams for all<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_88121\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-88121\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-88121 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"La pandemia metter\u00e0 in difficolt\u00e0 l'economia nel 2020 e 2021\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/La-pandemia-mettera-in-difficolta-leconomia-nel-2020-e-2021.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-88121\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pandemic will challenge the economy in 2020 and 2021<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4>More expensive goods and services? They are an incentive to invest<\/h4>\n<p>Dynamic market processes are also themselves helping to correct several mechanisms. Rising prices provide incentives for investment and market entry, so that demand swings will soon be reduced on the supply side as well.<br \/>\nIn any case, the issue of inflation should not be underestimated, especially in the medium and long term.<br \/>\nSooner or later, the public debt, which increased sharply during the pandemic, and the liquidity injections by the central banks will have to be covered.<br \/>\nThe inflation tolerance of many countries has increased, while inflation expectations, currently still stable, could be put to the test in the coming years, particularly in the USA and the Eurozone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/how-the-swiss-export-industry-focuses-on-innovation\/\"><strong>Swiss export industry relies on innovation<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/more-flexibility-in-promoting-swiss-innovation\/\"><strong>More flexibility in promoting Swiss innovation<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_91856\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-91856\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-91856 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"Un mucchio di franchi svizzeri di piccolo e di grande taglio\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Franchi-di-piccolo-e-di-grande-taglio.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-91856\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pile of small and large Swiss francs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4>Beware of falling demand and the rising Franc<\/h4>\n<p>This scenario would also be problematic for Switzerland, even though the inflation risk in the Confederation remains low.<br \/>\nHowever, inflation-linked demand collapses in other countries and a franc that is likely to strengthen significantly again represent a serious risk for the Swiss economy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/consumer-confidence-in-switzerland-at-pre-crisis-level\/\"><strong>Consumer confidence in Switzerland at pre-crisis level<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/swiss-market-more-attractive-for-foundations-in-the-future\/\"><strong>Swiss marketplace more attractive for foundations in the future?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Lebensmittelrationierung in der Schweiz w\u00e4hrend des Krieges\" width=\"840\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Di_GD7JWS5k?feature=oembed&#038;width=840&#038;height=1000&#038;discover=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Le rationnement alimentaire en Suisse pendant la guerre\" width=\"840\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OiPUpC9AfNA?feature=oembed&#038;width=840&#038;height=1000&#038;discover=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"II razionamento di generi alimentari in Svizzera durante la guerra\" width=\"840\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-NT-qHWsFRg?feature=oembed&#038;width=840&#038;height=1000&#038;discover=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_98257\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-98257\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-98257 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"L'inflazione pu\u00f2 essere un serio pericolo per l'economia reale\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Linflazione-puo-essere-essere-un-pericolo-per-leconomia-reale.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-98257\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Inflation can be a serious danger to the real economy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rising prices are creating unease and concern, but the institute with offices in Basel, Zurich and Lugano believes the fears are unfounded, especially in the short term<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":98250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[256,210,257],"tags":[868,779,581,931,932,856,887,411,262],"class_list":["post-98553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-magazine","category-switzerland","tag-bureaucracy","tag-franc","tag-income","tag-inflation","tag-price","tag-sme","tag-switzerland-en","tag-tax-competition","tag-taxation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98553"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98553\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98573,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98553\/revisions\/98573"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}