{"id":236320,"date":"2026-01-08T17:09:57","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T17:09:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/venezuela-nuovo-regime\/"},"modified":"2026-01-08T17:22:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T17:22:49","slug":"venezuela-new-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/venezuela-new-regime\/","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela key in Trump\u2019s national security strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"entry-title\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuela key in Trump\u2019s national security strategy<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">In a historic military operation, the U.S. has detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, raising questions about his regime\u2019s future and regional stability.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"toc-only\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"font-377884\">In a nutshell<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Mr. Maduro faces drug charges and is currently held in New York<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Trump\u2019s NSS emphasizes restoring U.S. dominance in Latin America<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuela has historical ties with China, Russia and Iran for military support<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_236313\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-236313\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-236313 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Venezuelans-celebrating-at-the-Obelisk-in-Buenos-Aires-the-capture-of-Nicolas-Maduro-by-the-U.S.-Image-by-Roberto-Fiadone-CC-BY-4.0-via-Wikimedia-Commons.jpg\" alt=\"Venezuelans celebrating at the Obelisk in Buenos Aires the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro by the U.S. Image by Roberto Fiadone, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Venezuelans-celebrating-at-the-Obelisk-in-Buenos-Aires-the-capture-of-Nicolas-Maduro-by-the-U.S.-Image-by-Roberto-Fiadone-CC-BY-4.0-via-Wikimedia-Commons.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Venezuelans-celebrating-at-the-Obelisk-in-Buenos-Aires-the-capture-of-Nicolas-Maduro-by-the-U.S.-Image-by-Roberto-Fiadone-CC-BY-4.0-via-Wikimedia-Commons-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Venezuelans-celebrating-at-the-Obelisk-in-Buenos-Aires-the-capture-of-Nicolas-Maduro-by-the-U.S.-Image-by-Roberto-Fiadone-CC-BY-4.0-via-Wikimedia-Commons-768x575.jpg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Venezuelans-celebrating-at-the-Obelisk-in-Buenos-Aires-the-capture-of-Nicolas-Maduro-by-the-U.S.-Image-by-Roberto-Fiadone-CC-BY-4.0-via-Wikimedia-Commons-350x262.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-236313\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuelans celebrating at the Obelisk in Buenos Aires the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro by the U.S. Image by Roberto Fiadone, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><span class=\"font-377884\">In a shocking turn of events, the United States carried out a large-scale military strike against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas. Mr. Maduro is currently held at a New York detention center, and appeared in court on Monday to face charges related to drug trafficking and weapons possession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the operation to apprehend the Venezuelan dictator as one of the most \u201cstunning, effective and powerful displays of American military might and competence in American history.\u201d The attack marked the most significant and direct U.S. intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The U.S. strikes occurred against the backdrop of a prolonged pressure campaign against Venezuela. The Trump administration had sent military assets to the Caribbean and conducted multiple deadly operations targeting suspected drug-trafficking boats. The attack and the capture of Mr. Maduro has sparked a range of questions: Is this really an anti-drug operation, or is it a maneuver to counter the influence of China, Russia and Iran in Latin America? If most of the narcotics entering the U.S. come from Mexico, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia, why focus efforts on Venezuela?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The answers to some of these questions can be found in the U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) document released in November. According to the NSS, \u201cafter years of neglect,\u201d the U.S. will reassert and enforce the \u201cTrump Corollary\u201d to the Monroe Doctrine, to \u201crestore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The document sets out four guidelines related to the Venezuelan crisis: protecting the U.S. from drug and human trafficking; preventing and discouraging mass migration; bolstering America\u2019s energy sector; and keeping the Western Hemisphere free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets. The NSS labels Russia, China and Iran, among others, as hostile.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The future of the Venezuelan regime remains uncertain. Although President Trump has claimed that the U.S. will play a decisive role in the country\u2019s fate, the Venezuelan military seems to be firmly in control of the nation and its military resources.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">On Saturday, the country\u2019s Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to step in as acting president during Mr. Maduro\u2019s \u201ctemporary absence.\u201d President Trump remarked that Ms. Rodriguez had expressed her backing for Washington, adding, \u201cShe really doesn\u2019t have a choice.\u201d He has threatened a second American strike on Venezuela if remaining members of the Maduro regime do not cooperate with his efforts to get the country \u201cfixed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/venezuela-maduro-end\/\">Venezuela: Maduro\u2019s end is near<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">The Cartel of the Suns<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Fidel Castro, the late leader of Cuba, was forced to replace the support he had previously relied on from the Soviet Union. To adapt to this shift, he focused on building new regional power centers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">One of his strategies was the establishment of the Sao Paulo Forum (SPF), which aimed to unite left-wing political forces across Latin America. He also focused on consolidating the Marxist irregular armed struggle through groups like the Simon Bolivar Guerrilla Coordination Committee. Another aspect of his approach involved the coordination of various forms of organized crime, particularly in the realm of drug trafficking.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Castro capitalized on the rise to power of his protege, the late Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, using Venezuela as his primary operational hub in the region, thanks to its vast oil wealth. Chavez authorized the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), then the most important drug cartel in Latin America, to operate within Venezuelan borders, which ultimately led to the emergence of the Cartel of the Suns \u2013 drug trafficking cells that operate within the Venezuelan military.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Castro and Chavez redefined the landscape of the cocaine trade. What was once simply a profit-driven business, like the operations of Colombia\u2019s Medellin and Cali cartels, evolved into a weapon of political power. This shift allowed them to secure substantial funding. The Cartel of the Suns stands out as the most powerful drug trafficking organization in the Western Hemisphere because it operates with the support of the state.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Critics of U.S. President Donald Trump make a valid point when they note that Venezuela is not a coca-producing nation like Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador or Peru. It is also accurate that most drugs enter the U.S. through Mexico. However, it is important to recognize that cartels from across Latin America utilize Venezuela as the main hub for coordination and distribution.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">In a letter to President Trump, Venezuelan three-star general Hugo \u201cEl Pollo\u201d Carvajal, who was one of the founders of the Cartel of the Suns, described the Nicolas Maduro government as a \u201cnarco-terrorist organization\u201d and said that the purpose of the cartel was to use drugs as a weapon against the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">General Carvajal, who was Hugo Chavez\u2019s and Nicolas Maduro\u2019s intelligence chief, is currently imprisoned in the U.S. after pleading guilty in a federal narco-terrorism case.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Recent investigations have found that Venezuela is responsible for distributing over 20 percent of the cocaine consumed in the Western Hemisphere. On August 7, both the Department of State and the Department of Justice announced an increase in the reward for any information that leads to the arrest and\/or conviction of Mr. Maduro for violating U.S. narcotics laws. Before his capture, the reward stood at $50 million.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuelan mass migration<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The ongoing refugee crisis in Venezuela is the largest displacement crisis in Latin America and is among the largest in the world. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, nearly 7.9 million refugees and migrants have fled Venezuela since 2025 in pursuit of safety and a better life. The Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela (R4V) estimates that there are currently about 545,000 Venezuelan migrants residing in the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The number of encounters (border apprehensions, inadmissibles) involving Venezuelan migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border has significantly increased, rising from 49,000 in 2021 to 188,000 in 2022 and 266,000 in\u00a02023. Although encounters slowed slightly in 2024, they remained elevated at 261,000. Therefore, the figures provided by R4V could be an underestimation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The vast majority of Venezuelan migrants are honest and hardworking, but a small fraction of individuals have been linked to criminal activity, which has unfairly tarnished the reputation of the entire community. General Carvajal has alleged that the regime deliberately recruited criminal groups like Tren de Aragua from prisons and facilitated their travel to the U.S. to commit various crimes, including drug trafficking, kidnapping and extortion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">As Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has pointed out, a democratic change in government would lead most migrants to return to the country.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuelan oil for U.S. refineries<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuela has always been a reliable supplier of crude oil to the U.S., which was particularly evident during World War II. Numerous refineries have been built in Texas and Louisiana, designed to process heavy crude oil, such as that extracted from Venezuela.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Since the U.S. does not produce much heavy crude oil, it relies on imports from Canada, Mexico and even some countries in the Middle East. This significantly raises transportation and insurance costs, which in turn drive up gasoline prices. The increased fuel costs ripple through the economy, impacting the prices of other consumer goods and triggering inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The U.S. is currently energy independent and does not need Venezuelan oil to supply its own market, but resuming heavy crude shipments from the country would reduce gasoline costs and support the energy goals set out in the national security document.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">After the capture of Mr. Maduro, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington would not manage Venezuela\u2019s daily affairs, apart from enforcing an ongoing \u201coil quarantine.\u201d He noted that the blockade on sanctioned oil tankers \u2013\u00a0some of which have been seized by the U.S. \u2013\u00a0remains intact. \u201cThat is a tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes that not just further the national interest of the U.S., which is number one, but also that lead to a better future for the people of Venezuela,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">China, Russia and Iran in Venezuela<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">From the onset of Chavez\u2019s presidency until 2018, Venezuela secured over $62 billion in loans and around $6 billion in investments from China. This funding accounted for 46 percent of all Chinese financial support in Latin America during that same period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Venezuela stands out as the only Latin American nation that has entered into a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia. This agreement lays out a comprehensive roadmap designed to enhance collaboration in vital areas such as energy, finance, infrastructure, security, communication, scientific research, mining, transportation and military cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Russian state-owned engineering giant Rostec\u2019s primary subsidiary, Rosoboronexport, has completed a factory project to produce 70 million cartridges annually for Kalashnikov rifles in Venezuela. This is just one of many military agreements between Moscow and Caracas. The country has been one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons in the region, including Sukhoi fighter jets and S-300 missile systems.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Iran and Venezuela have signed an estimated 300 agreements, ranging from working on housing projects to cement plants, car factories and military cooperation. According to the Miami Herald, Venezuela has developed \u201ca robust unmanned aerial vehicle program that now produces not only reconnaissance units, but also armed systems, stealth models and kamikaze drones loaded with explosives \u2013 all inspired by Iranian designs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: \u201cIran, its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and even Hezbollah have a presence in South America, and one of their anchor presence \u2013 especially for the Iranians \u2013 is inside of Venezuela.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Russian, Chinese and Iranian officials have firmly condemned the action against the deposed Venezuelan dictator, calling it a violation of international law and a troubling precedent.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Trump\u2019s stance on Venezuela<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The U.S. has several motives for advocating a change in government in Venezuela, all of which are addressed in the NSS, along with concerns surrounding the defense of democracy and human rights. Among these reasons, the Trump administration has prominently focused on drug trafficking as its primary argument. It has stated that drugs serve as weapons of war, taking American lives and causing more devastation than many wars fought by the U.S., including those in Vietnam and Iraq.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">President Trump also clarified that this is not a war against Venezuela or its people, but against an illegitimate narco-tyrant who committed fraud in the 2024 elections and maintains power through terror and repression. Venezuela\u2019s recognized president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, is viewed by the opposition and many international governments \u2013\u00a0including the U.S. \u2013 as the legitimate winner of the disputed 2024 election. Along with Ms. Machado, he has publicly supported the ongoing U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">At this moment, as Mr. Rubio has pointed out, the U.S.\u2019s main interest is to complete the dismantling of the Cartel of the Suns \u2013 that is, to manage a surrender process led by Mr. Maduro\u2019s designated vice president, Ms. Rodriguez. If she fails to fulfill her commitment to the U.S. to facilitate a return to democracy, she will surely suffer the same fate as Mr. Maduro.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"font-377884\">Scenarios<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Most likely: Armed forces and remaining regime members surrender<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Ms. Rodriguez complies and agrees to surrender to the U.S. on behalf of the remaining members of the Maduro government and its armed forces. This surrender could occur peacefully, or the U.S. might resort to limited military force if necessary. During the transition, all weapons and military assets are secured and transferred under U.S. oversight. Known regime loyalists and foreign advisors are expelled from the country, U.S. and allied forces are permitted temporary entry to ensure a peaceful process, and the judiciary is reformed alongside the dismantling of the regime\u2019s institutional structures to prevent any return to authoritarian rule. The Venezuelan oil market will also be restructured.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">This is the most likely scenario as Ms. Rodriguez has no other choice but to comply. While there may be resistance, the Venezuelan armed forces lack the military strength to confront the U.S.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Less likely: Ms. Rodriguez does not comply<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Acting Venezuelan President Rodriguez refuses to comply and attempts to stall, negotiate in bad faith and deceive the Trump administration. This leads to a second U.S. military strike on Venezuela, and potentially a third if resistance persists.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Unlikely: Civil war<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">A civil war erupts as the Cartel of the Suns and the remnants of the regime cling to power. This is a highly unlikely scenario as a majority of the Venezuelan population strongly supports the U.S. capture of Maduro and a full regime change. The absence of mass celebrations in the streets stems from widespread fear of violent repression by the remaining cartel members and regime loyalists.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Furthermore, unlike many nations in the Middle East, Venezuela does not grapple with major religious, cultural or ethnic divisions within its society, and it has a robust democratic tradition.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6642\" data-end=\"6856\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Author: <strong>Alejandro Pe\u00f1a Esclusa &#8211; <\/strong>Venezuelan engineer, writer, analyst and political consultant.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/venezuela-regime-change\/\">https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/venezuela-regime-change\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a historic military operation, the U.S. has detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, raising questions about his regime\u2019s future and regional stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":236314,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2275,988,210,735,1030],"tags":[651,1297,2533,2669,666,654,2649],"class_list":["post-236320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-america-en","category-geopolitics","category-magazine","category-russia-en","category-usa-en","tag-america-en","tag-gis","tag-global-matters","tag-latin-america","tag-security","tag-usa-en","tag-venezuela"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=236320"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":236322,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236320\/revisions\/236322"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/236314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=236320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=236320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=236320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}