{"id":229001,"date":"2023-07-03T12:32:18","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T12:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/gli-obiettivi-climatici-dipendono-dalla-cina\/"},"modified":"2023-07-05T09:15:05","modified_gmt":"2023-07-05T09:15:05","slug":"climate-goals-depend-on-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/climate-goals-depend-on-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate goals depend on China"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"entry-title\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Climate goals depend on China<\/span><\/h1>\n<h3><span class=\"font-377884\"><em>The world cannot meet its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 unless China, the largest polluter, plays a more active and constructive role.<\/em><\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"toc-only\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"font-377884\" style=\"color: #ff0000;\">In a nutshell<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">For China, energy security and the economy trump climate protection<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Beijing politicizes energy as its coal-import ban with Australia shows<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">One bright spot is China\u2019s record production of renewable energy<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_228970\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-228970\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-1024x683.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-228970\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Traffic road in China Image by Alex from Pixabay\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay-350x233.jpg 350w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Traffic-road-in-China-Image-by-Alex-from-Pixabay.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-228970\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Traffic road in China Image by Alex from Pixabay<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><span class=\"font-377884\">China\u2019s 1.4 billion people account for 19 percent of the world\u2019s population, 22 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) and 26 percent of the planet\u2019s energy consumption. In the energy sphere alone, Beijing is the world\u2019s biggest polluter and largest investor in cleaner energy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">China consumes more than half of the world\u2019s coal supply and imports more oil and \u2013 since 2022 \u2013 liquified natural gas (LNG) than any other nation. At the same time, China sets the pace in solar and wind renewables, is a driver of hydrogen projects and has the world\u2019s largest electric vehicle (EV) and battery market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Yet Chinese carbon emissions rose to more than 30 percent of the global total during the Covid-19 pandemic before falling slightly to 28 percent in 2022. That translates into 14 gigatons (Gt), more than the combined total of all 38 nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-china-seeks-decarbonization-only-by-2060\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">China seeks decarbonization only by 2060<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that China would commit to full decarbonization and carbon neutrality only by 2060. He reaffirmed the goal at the Glasgow summit in 2021 to reduce national emissions starting in 2030. Until then, China\u2019s emissions can continue to increase annually. For the first time, however, Beijing now wants to reduce its coal consumption and emissions starting in 2025. China also seeks to increase the share of \u201cclean\u201d energy sources (those, according to Chinese interpretation, also include nuclear energy and hydropower) from 15.9 percent in 2020 to 25 percent of primary energy consumption by 2030.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The sheer scale of China\u2019s energy consumption shows that the nation will decide whether the planet meets its goal of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/climate-change-and-consequences\/\"><strong>Climate change and consequences<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-burning-coal-and-adding-renewables-like-never-before\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Burning coal and adding renewables like never before<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">China burns more than 4 billion tons of coal annually, accounting for 58 percent of global demand in 2022. As a result of China\u2019s energy crisis since 2021 and rising LNG and coal prices, China\u2019s coal, oil and gas production soared in 2022. It increased its coal production by 9 percent, to 4.5 billion tons in 2022. Gas production rose 6.4 percent to 218 billion cubic meters (bcm), while crude oil production grew above 200 million tons for the first time since 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Although permitting should not be equated with construction, the 106 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power projects approved in 2022 are astounding. The trend continues in 2023. At least 20.5 GW of new coal-firing power plants were approved in the first quarter. China\u2019s coal generation capacity could reach 270 GW by 2025, more than the coal generation capacity in the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">These developments are alarming for global emission reduction efforts, despite China\u2019s addition of a record 125 GW in solar and wind capacity last year. Data since 2021 shows that climate and environmental targets have again taken a back seat to energy security and economic competitiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-high-demand-for-natural-gas-and-lng\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">High demand for natural gas and LNG<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Natural gas accounts for only 8 percent of China\u2019s primary energy mix, compared to 23 percent globally. Chinese gas consumption is expected to peak in 2035. Domestic oil and gas production expansion enjoys high priority for curbing imports, which stand at 40 percent of natural gas consumption.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">China\u2019s total gas consumption could increase from 320 bcm in 2020 to 340-360 bcm and production is expected to soar to 430 bcm in 2025. Domestic natural gas production rose by 9.8 percent to 189 bcm in 2020, with an expected rise to 220-250 bcm in 2025. Yet China will still need to import an estimated 180-210 bcm of pipeline gas and LNG annually.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">In 2025, China might import 38 bcm via the Russian Power of Siberia 1 pipeline and 60 bcm from Central Asia and another 10 bcm from Myanmar via pipelines. Russian gas accounted for just 6 percent of the total gas imports in 2021, though the share increased last year because of the war in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">But talks with Moscow for constructing the Power of Siberia 2 (PS-2) gas pipeline, adding an annual capacity of at least 38 bcm (and feeding it with gas from the Yamal peninsula, previously supplied for the now-closed Nord Steam gas pipelines), highlights the increasing power imbalance in favor of Beijing. Russia has lost its most important and profitable European gas market because it invaded Ukraine, and any new pipeline to Asia will take between five to 10 years to complete. Meanwhile, China seeks to double its annual gas imports from Turkmenistan up to 65 bcm. China\u2019s rising needs will result in an LNG import demand of around 80-110 bcm in 2025, which will be fulfilled via 24 LNG import terminals with a current capacity of 136 bcm per year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/electric-vehicles-deliver-energy-transition\/\">Can electric vehicles deliver a just energy transition?<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-china-s-influence-on-the-lng-market\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">China\u2019s influence on the LNG market<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">China is the biggest wild card in worldwide LNG demand development, with demand high enough to influence market price. While German and other European gas companies only want to sign new LNG contracts for up to 10 years due to the uncertainties in European Union gas demand by 2030, China has been willing to sign new long-term contracts up to 30 years with Qatar. If Beijing\u2019s demand grows further, the EU may face supply problems as soon as next winter. The International Energy Agency expects China to absorb 80 percent of the additional 23 bcm in LNG supply available this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-renewables-and-future-electricity-demand\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Renewables and future electricity demand<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Electricity currently represents around 24 percent of China\u2019s final energy consumption and has been forecasted to almost double, up to 46 percent, in 2050. Rapid urbanization is a major driver. Today, nearly two-thirds of China\u2019s population lives in cities. Over the last two years, China experienced severe power shortages in several regions due to strong demand, unprecedented droughts and bad energy management. In addition, the politically motivated ban on cleaner coal imports from Australia in 2020 triggered local power blackouts. It forced China to increase its domestic production of dirtier and lower-quality coal. (Australia ran afoul of Beijing for, among other things, calling for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19.)<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-betting-big-on-solar-and-nuclear-energy\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Betting big on solar and nuclear energy<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">By 2021, China\u2019s solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was 306 GW and its wind 328 GW. China also dominates worldwide solar PV production. By 2050, renewable installations are expected to expand further, with solar PV alone up to 1.8 terrawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 and 5 TWh by 2050.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Also, China plans an expansion of nuclear energy capacities from 50 to 70 GW by 2025, necessitating the construction of about 20 new reactors. The country aims to become the world\u2019s largest nuclear energy operator and is also financing the construction of new nuclear reactors worldwide. Its planned nuclear energy generation of 660TWh in 2050 will be bigger than North America\u2019s capacity. China is building nuclear power plants at much lower costs than its OECD competitors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Hydrogen (scientifically known as H2 and the element considered a promising energy storage solution) is also expected to play an important role in China\u2019s energy system. By 2030, Beijing targets hydrogen to reach 5 percent and, by 2050, 10 percent of final energy consumption. By 2035, the target is a comprehensive hydrogen energy industry formation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">At the same time, Beijing also embraces a large-scale Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) adoption after 2030. It will need to ramp up its CCUS capacity by more than 400 times up to 1.3 gigatons per year of CO2 by 2060.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Improving energy intensity and energy conservation alone will not be sufficient for a clean energy transition. A significant problem is posed by the fast-growing digital infrastructure, which will more than double by 2030. Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will rise along with it, jeopardizing the goal of CO2 neutrality by 2060. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies mainly locate their power-demanding computer mining operations in China, contributing to increases in emissions. The electricity demand could quadruple by 2035.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Another driver of the country\u2019s demand is electromobility. In 2021, some 3.2 electric vehicles (EVs) had been sold in China \u2013 50 percent of the world\u2019s total. It produced 44 percent of the world\u2019s EVs in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_131314\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-131314\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1024x683.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-131314\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"charging station\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-131314\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span class=\"font-377884\">E-charging station<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Scenarios<\/h2>\n<h3 id=\"h-climate-protection-as-a-guiding-force\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Climate protection as a guiding force<\/h3>\n<p>The Made in China 2025 strategy promotes innovation in core sectors such as industry electrification, processing technology and green power. Energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies (such as heat pumps) are also highlighted. Moreover, digitalization for reducing energy intensity in transportation, manufacturing and buildings will play a prominent role also far beyond 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing should be more interested in climate protection since global warming could bring devastating economic consequences for China. With the rise in sea level, the southern coastal provinces of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shanghai are at risk. Other regions struggle with water scarcity that limits shale oil and gas production and may curb hydropower electricity generation, 16 percent of China\u2019s power mix in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>The clean energy competition is heating up as the U.S. rolls out its Inflation Reduction Act and the EU its Fit for 55 policies under the European Green Deal. However, digitalization technologies open vast opportunities for China, a manufacturing powerhouse. They give rise to new industries such as EVs, batteries or heat pumps and build demand for rare earths and other critical raw materials \u2013 another area of China\u2019s strength. Consequently, China\u2019s market share of EVs in Europe is expected to grow rapidly at the expense of its German and other European competitors.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-energy-security-and-economic-interests-dominate\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy security and economic interests dominate<\/h3>\n<p>China\u2019s energy policy has always prioritized the security of supply combined with extensive self-sufficiency and autarky to free itself from import dependencies.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing\u2019s future climate policy will depend on Western geopolitical concessions. That could result in an appeasement policy of the West on the Taiwan question or Beijing\u2019s illegal claims in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n<p>The conflict with Australia has highlighted that Beijing\u2019s interests trump any climate policies. Previously, Australia was the second-most important coal supplier to China after Indonesia, as Australian coal is of higher quality with lower CO2 emissions than China\u2019s. Nonetheless, Beijing was willing to punish Australia with an export ban on coal and other goods and import dirtier coal from South Africa, Indonesia and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>China is far ahead of its competitors\u2019 access to critical raw materials and refinement capacities. It might increasingly benefit from its strategically prudent long-term investments, forcing the West to adopt protectionist policies to reduce its raw material, technology and market dependencies on China.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><strong>Author: Dr. Frank Umbach professor, researcher, consultant, European government advisor and prolific author, with expertise in energy security and cybersecurity<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Source:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"z1JoFbkT2M\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/china-climate-change-2\/\">Climate goals depend on China<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Climate goals depend on China&#8221; &#8212; GIS Reports\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/china-climate-change-2\/embed\/#?secret=VbA7m3w6Ym#?secret=z1JoFbkT2M\" data-secret=\"z1JoFbkT2M\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The world cannot meet its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 unless China, the largest polluter, plays a more active and constructive role.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":228971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2330,1698,988,260,210],"tags":[663,2082,1960,1665,2063,1326,264],"class_list":["post-229001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-en","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-highlights","category-magazine","tag-china","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-protection-3","tag-co2-en","tag-decarbonization","tag-energy-3","tag-sustainability"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229001"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229001\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":229003,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229001\/revisions\/229003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/228971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}