{"id":224789,"date":"2022-10-15T12:14:17","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T12:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/i-veicoli-elettrici-possono-garantire-una-giusta-transizione-energetica\/"},"modified":"2022-10-15T17:10:20","modified_gmt":"2022-10-15T17:10:20","slug":"electric-vehicles-deliver-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/electric-vehicles-deliver-energy-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Can electric vehicles deliver a just energy transition?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"entry-title\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Can electric vehicles deliver a just energy transition?<\/span><\/h1>\n<h3><span class=\"font-377884\">The growing EV sector promises to end our reliance on oil, but its benefits may not be evenly distributed worldwide.<\/span><\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"toc-only\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"font-377884\" style=\"color: #ff0000;\">In a nutshell<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Electric vehicles have the greatest potential to decarbonize transport<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">EV sales in developing countries have been weak<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">An inequitable transition may fuel resistance to climate efforts<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_131315\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-131315\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/circubat-improves-eco-balance-of-e-mobility\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-2\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-131315\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-131315\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"charging station\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/charging-station-gd81a2bed2_1920.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-131315\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Charging station\u00a0<span class=\"attribution_field \">Photo by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/it\/users\/akrebs60-5424918\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=5212924\">A. Krebs<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/it\/\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=5212924\">Pixabay<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Globally, the transport sector is not the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the main culprit behind climate change. However, it is widely considered the most difficult sector to decarbonize. \u201cWithout aggressive and sustained mitigation policies being implemented, transport emissions could increase at a faster rate than emissions from the other energy end-use sectors,\u201d the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The sector has uniquely relied on a single fuel, petroleum, which supplies 95 percent of the total energy used by world transport. Road transport, both passenger and freight, is responsible for nearly three-quarters of all transport emissions. Continued growth in these activities could outweigh all climate change mitigation measures, the IPCC has argued.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">It is no wonder that at COP26, the United Nations\u2019 2021 climate change conference in Scotland, the parties agreed to accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Their aim is to have all global sales of new cars and vans zero-emission by 2040, and by 2035 or sooner in leading markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Currently, electric vehicles (EVs) powered by low-emission electricity offer the greatest potential to decarbonize land-based transport. Their rapid deployment will also have the biggest detrimental impact on oil demand. Such a shift would mark the second time in history when electrification existentially threatens the oil industry, after the invention of the electric light bulb two centuries ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/hyundais-hydrogen-gamble-begins-in-switzerland\/\">Hyundai&#8217;s hydrogen venture begins in Switzerland<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/on-the-way-to-climate-neutral-road-traffic\/\">On the way to climate-neutral road traffic<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Much of the debate over the future of the transport sector and EVs has focused on technical matters, like setting targets to reduce carbon emissions. But more qualitative questions are capturing growing attention: How will the adoption of EVs affect the billions worldwide who cannot afford them? And what would the end of oil mean for the developing countries whose economies depend on it? Overlooking issues of equity and justice in the energy transition risks worsening the global divide between rich and poor, and stoking new resistance to climate efforts in the developing world.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"font-377884\">Existential threat<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Oil entered the transport sector by chance. The early use of this fossil fuel was primarily for lighting. When Thomas Edison developed the first practical electric incandescent lamp, the oil industry of the era faced a serious threat: the oil lamp had become obsolete.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">But just as one door closed, another, much bigger door opened: the development of the internal combustion engine, which gave oil a new lifeline that sustains it to this day. And while its use in sectors such as power generation has been declining since the first oil shock in 1973, its dominance of the transport sector\u00a0\u2013 which captures more than 65 percent of total oil consumption\u00a0\u2013 has been preserved.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The future of transport is thus central to the outlook for oil demand. Today, electrification is taking another run at the\u00a0oil industry. If recent trends in EV sales continue and the relevant government plans materialize, the end of the oil age will be nearer than originally thought. The need for economic diversification in oil-dependent economies has accordingly become much more urgent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), sales of EVs in 2021 doubled from the previous year to a new record of 6.6 million. While still a small absolute share \u2013\u00a0for comparison, global car sales grew to around 66.7 million automobiles in 2021, and today there are more than 1.4 billion cars worldwide \u2013 the growth rate has been staggering. The market share of EVs quadrupled in 2021 compared to 2019, and sales of EVs in the first quarter of 2022 were 75 percent more compared to the same period only a year ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The momentum is expected to hold, if not accelerate, particularly as governments continue to introduce measures favoring EVs \u2013 from subsidies and tax credits to a straightforward ban on the sale of new diesel\/gasoline engine vehicles. In the United States, the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act provides EV tax credits of up to $7,500, in the hope of reaching a target set last year to have EVs comprise at least half of new vehicles by 2030. Norway announced the world\u2019s most aggressive plan, with the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to be banned beginning in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"font-377884\">Climate colonialism?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">The\u00a0zeal for electric vehicles\u00a0is strongest in rich, developed economies. Among developing economies, China \u2013 which accounted for half of the growth in EV sales during 2021\u00a0\u2013 is the exception. Elsewhere, in countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, EV sales have been meager. In Brazil, India and Indonesia, for instance, EVs account for less than 0.5 percent of car sales, according to the IEA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Affordability is a major barrier. For instance, in major markets, the price of a battery-powered EV tends to be 20-45 percent more expensive than a conventional car. Subsidies can help close the gap, but not all governments can sustain the generous handouts typical of those more endowed, especially with poorer nations facing more immediate issues of high food and energy prices. The majority of the world\u2019s population today, which is concentrated in the developing world, cannot afford access to personal vehicles, or in many cases to any form of motorized transport.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Another crucial issue for the spread of EVs is access to electricity. A study by the\u00a0Energy for Growth Hub\u00a0estimates that a staggering 45 percent of the world\u2019s population does not have access to reliable power. Unless that changes, the penetration of EVs will be significantly limited in such countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"font-377884\"><em>It remains unclear how the ambitious global targets for green vehicles can be achieved without leaving many communities behind.<\/em><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Meanwhile, the\u00a0metals and minerals\u00a0needed to produce EVs and their batteries are mined in a number of developing countries, such as the cobalt-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo (one of the five poorest nations in the world). As the market for EVs expands, the mining of these minerals and metals will increase accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Setting aside the environmental footprint, these activities also pose socioeconomic and political risks in poorer countries, which often lack the institutions to manage a rush of new capital \u2013 the \u201cresource curse\u201d phenomenon. In many developing economies, resource wealth fails to deliver sustainable growth, in fact aggravating the poverty it promised to cure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Unless the above three issues are tackled, the expansion of EVs may be aligned with the energy transition as defined by richer nations \u2013 but it will not be evenly distributed. This will likely foster resentment in poorer countries, with negative repercussions for the climate change agenda. Already, concepts such as \u201cclimate colonialism\u201d and \u201cgreen colonialism\u201d have gained currency.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_224669\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-224669\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/i-veicoli-elettrici-possono-garantire-una-giusta-transizione-energetica\/un-bus-elettrico-photo-by-esa-niemela-on-pixabay-2\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-224669\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-224669\" src=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"Un bus elettrico Photo by Esa Niemel\u00e4 on Pixabay\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Un-bus-elettrico-Photo-by-Esa-Niemela-on-Pixabay.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-224669\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Un bus elettrico Photo by Esa Niemel\u00e4 on Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"h-just-transition\"><span class=\"font-377884\">Just transition<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">A 2020\u00a0study\u00a0described a \u201cjust energy transition\u201d as one found in the \u201cconvergence of energy transitions and socioeconomic concerns.\u201d Along similar lines, the Declaration on Zero Emissions Vehicles, struck at the COP26, recognizes \u201cthe importance of ensuring the transition to zero-emission vehicles is just and sustainable so that no community is left behind.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Yet, under existing conditions outside the most developed nations, it remains unclear how the ambitious global targets for green vehicles can be achieved without leaving many communities behind.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">A rapid transition to electric vehicles has widely been promoted without consideration for objectives like the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7, which refers to \u201caccess to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">As long as equity is not at the center of decarbonizing transport, EVs will remain a luxury beyond the reach of many living in poorer countries, who will greet the climate agenda with greater skepticism.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"pos-factsfigures-4\" class=\"psf factsfigures toc-suggest\" data-mw-id=\"pos-factsfigures-4\">\n<h2><span class=\"font-377884\">Facts &amp; figures<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">In 2012, around 120,000 electric cars were sold worldwide. In 2021, more than that many are sold each week, with nearly 10 percent of global car sales now electric (IEA).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Public spending on subsidies and incentives for EVs nearly doubled in 2021, to nearly $30 billion (IEA).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Light-duty cars and trucks produce 40 percent of transportation CO2. Decarbonizing the sector will require that between 66 and 90 percent of passenger automobiles are zero-emission vehicles by 2050 (International Council on Clean Transportation).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Transport is responsible for almost a quarter of European greenhouse gas emissions, with road transport by far the biggest emitter in the sector (European Commission).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">More vehicles were sold in China in 2021 (3.3 million) than in the entire world in 2020 (IEA).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"font-377884\">Transport demand is expected to more than double by 2050, compared to 2015 (International Transport Forum).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Author:\u00a0<strong>Carole Nakhle<\/strong>\u00a0is the founder and CEO of Crystol Energy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"font-377884\">Source:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Q5PtXH4zfv\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/ev-transition\/\">Can electric vehicles deliver a just energy transition?<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Can electric vehicles deliver a just energy transition?&#8221; &#8212; GIS Reports\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/ev-transition\/embed\/#?secret=wDD89ZpPkd#?secret=Q5PtXH4zfv\" data-secret=\"Q5PtXH4zfv\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The growing EV sector promises to end our reliance on oil, but its benefits may not be evenly distributed worldwide.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":224669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[256,1698,988,260,210,305,1999],"tags":[807,1772,1768,1801,1326,815,264,963],"class_list":["post-224789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-highlights","category-magazine","category-politics","category-technology","tag-auto","tag-climate-protection-2","tag-climate-friendly","tag-electric-vehicle","tag-energy-3","tag-environment","tag-sustainability","tag-transport"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224789"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224789\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":224791,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224789\/revisions\/224791"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/224669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swissfederalism.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}